The 2026 AFL season has delivered one of the most unpredictable campaigns in recent memory, and with the introduction of the AFL’s brand-new wildcard finals system, the race to September has become more intense than ever. Under the new format, teams finishing seventh to tenth will battle it out in a wildcard round for the final two spots in the traditional top-eight finals series.
As clubs hit the midway point of the season, there is already a clear divide between premiership contenders, absolute pretenders and teams suddenly dreaming of sneaking into finals through the wildcard loophole.
Premiership Contenders Setting the Standard
The biggest story of the season has been the consistency of the Fremantle Dockers. The Dockers are looking like the benchmark of the competition at the half way point, combining elite ball movement, and pressure football.
Veteran leadership has remained critical throughout the competition, while stars like Nick Daicos continue to dominate matches weekly. Their ability to win close games has helped keep them in the hunt for the Wild Card.
Geelong Football Club have also surged back into premiership calculations again. Many expected the Cats to begin rebuilding, but their elite development systems continue to deliver. Geelong’s system, discipline and ability to control tempo make them a genuine threat deep into September.
Meanwhile, Brisbane Lions remain one of the most dangerous sides in the league. Their contested football and explosive forward line make them difficult to stop, especially at the Gabba. Brisbane’s recent success has helped build a winning culture, and they look built for finals football once again.
Another club turning heads is Gold Coast Suns. Long criticised as a “failed venture”, the Suns are finally beginning to look like a mature football side capable of handling pressure situations. Their midfield depth and improved defensive accountability have transformed them into one of the competition’s most exciting teams.
Teams Underperforming in 2026
Not every club has lived up to expectations though. Carlton Football Club entered the year with genuine premiership ambitions but have struggled for consistency. Despite being one of the best first quarter clubs in the competition, late defensive lapses and poor ball use have hurt the Blues throughout the first half of the season. While their talent remains undeniable, they cannot afford many more losses if they want to avoid relying on the wildcard round.
The St Kilda Saints have also failed to hit the heights many predicted. The Saintss still show flashes of brilliance, but their inability to sustain four-quarter performances has become a recurring issue. St Kilda’s midfield has often been outworked, placing enormous pressure on their backline.
Another disappointment has been the GWS Giants. After showing signs of improvement over recent seasons, the Giants have again struggled to score consistently. Injuries have not helped, but their conservative ball movement and inability to convert opportunities inside 50 continue to cost them matches.
West Coast Eagles and Essendon Bombers Football Club remain in rebuilding phases, although both clubs have shown encouraging signs with younger talent emerging. While finals remain unlikely in 2026, their development across the season may provide optimism for the future.
Wildcard Finals Could Change Everything
The AFL’s new wildcard finals system may be the biggest talking point of the year. As mentioned, the format allows teams finishing seventh to tenth to compete in sudden-death play-off matches for the final two finals positions. Seventh will host tenth, while eighth hosts ninth. That means clubs sitting just outside the traditional top eight remain very much alive in the finals race.
Western Bulldogs look perfectly suited to take advantage of the new system. Their midfield talent is elite when fully healthy, and if they can sneak into ninth or 10th position, they would become an incredibly dangerous wildcard opponent.
Adelaide Football Club are another side capable of making a late-season charge. Their high-scoring style and young talent make them unpredictable, and the wildcard format gives them extra hope even if they cannot crack the top six.
The same applies to the North Melbourne Football Club, who have shown patches of strong football but remain inconsistent. The Kangaroos may not yet be genuine premiership contenders, but under the wildcard format they simply need to stay within striking distance of tenth spot to keep their season alive.
The new finals structure has also dramatically increased the importance of percentage, late-season momentum and injury management. Teams that previously would have faded out of contention by mid-season are now fully invested in every match.
Mid-Season Verdict
At the halfway mark of the 2026 AFL season, the premiership race looks wide open. Traditional powers like Sydney, Geelong and Brisbane appear strongest, but the wildcard finals format has created new opportunities for clubs hovering around the edge of the eight. With more meaningful games, increased pressure and finals spots still within reach for several clubs, the second half of the AFL season promises to deliver massive drama every single weekend.
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