The wait is over, the 2026 NRL Finals are here!
After 27 rounds of regular-season rugby league, just eight teams remain in the hunt for the ultimate prize. From here on in, every tackle, every kick and every try carries enormous weight as the race for the 2026 NRL Premiership officially enters September.
Week One delivers four blockbuster finals, with two elimination finals and two qualifying finals on the schedule.
For the South Sydney Rabbitohs, Newcastle Knights, Cronulla Sharks and North Queensland Cowboys, there is no second chance. Lose this weekend and their 2026 season is over.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Warriors, Dolphins, Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters have earned the luxury of a double chance. Win their qualifying final and they progress directly to the preliminary finals in two weeks' time, with next weekend off. Lose, however, and they will face an elimination final next weekend against one of this week's winners.
The stakes could hardly be higher.
So, who are we tipping to keep their premiership dreams alive?
The Rabbitohs and Knights kick off the finals at Allianz Stadium on Friday night, before the Warriors host the Dolphins in Auckland on Saturday afternoon. The Sharks and Cowboys then meet at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night, while the weekend concludes with the minor premiers Penrith Panthers taking on the Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Newcastle Knights
Elimination Final. Allianz Stadium.
Our Tip: Rabbitohs
There is no margin for error when the Rabbitohs and Knights run onto Allianz Stadium on Friday night.
Both sides have fought their way back into the finals picture after missing out in 2025, but only one will be playing next weekend.
South Sydney head into September with plenty of attacking firepower. Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell, Alex Johnston and Cameron Murray give the Rabbitohs the experience and class required for a finals campaign, while the forward pack will be crucial in establishing field position.
Newcastle have plenty of strike of their own, particularly through Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best, Dane Gagai and Greg Marzhew, but the Knights face some concerns through the middle after losing key forwards to injury and suspension.
The biggest question for Souths may be whether they can handle the pressure of a sudden-death final. The Rabbitohs have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they are capable of doing exactly that.
Tip: South Sydney Rabbitohs
Prediction: Rabbitohs by 8 points
New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins
Qualifying Final. Go Media Stadium.
Our Tip: Warriors
This could be one of the most fascinating games of the opening weekend.
The Warriors have earned themselves a home qualifying final after an outstanding regular season, while the Dolphins are preparing for their first-ever NRL finals campaign.
That alone makes this a historic occasion for the Dolphins, but they have done far more than simply make up the numbers. Kristian Woolf's side has built its season around defensive resilience and has plenty of attacking weapons, including Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo and Isaiya Katoa.
The Warriors, however, have home-ground advantage and have proven throughout 2026 that they are one of the competition's genuine premiership contenders.
Go Media Stadium should be absolutely rocking, and the Warriors will be desperate to make the most of their opportunity to secure a place in the preliminary finals and bank a weekend off.
The Dolphins are capable of causing an upset, but we're backing the home side to handle the occasion.
Tip: New Zealand Warriors
Prediction: Warriors by 6 points
Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys
Elimination Final. Allianz Stadium.
Our Tip: Sharks
Saturday night's elimination final is another game where the pressure will be enormous.
The Sharks finished fifth and the Cowboys eighth, but neither side can afford to dwell on their regular-season record. This is a completely different proposition.
Cronulla will be disappointed not to have their elimination final at their traditional home ground, with the match moved to Allianz Stadium, but they still enter the contest with a squad capable of going deep into September.
Nicho Hynes will be central to everything the Sharks do with the football, while Will Kennedy, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Briton Nikora and Cam McInnes provide plenty of experience around him.
The Cowboys have been inconsistent throughout the season, but finals football can bring out the best in teams. North Queensland will need their forwards to win the middle and find a way to limit Hynes' influence if they are to pull off the upset.
This feels like a game that could go down to the wire, but we're giving the Sharks the edge.
Tip: Cronulla Sharks
Prediction: Sharks by 4 points
Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters
Qualifying Final. CommBank Stadium.
Our Tip: Panthers
The final game of Week One is arguably the biggest blockbuster of the lot.
The 2026 minor premiers, Penrith, take on a dangerous Sydney Roosters side in a clash between two teams that have genuine premiership aspirations.
Penrith have once again demonstrated why they have become the benchmark of the modern NRL era, securing their fourth minor premiership in seven years.
The Panthers now have the opportunity to make that regular-season dominance count when it matters most.
The Roosters certainly won't make it easy. With plenty of attacking talent and finals experience throughout their squad, Trent Robinson's men have the ability to trouble Penrith if they can start quickly and turn the game into an arm wrestle.
However, Penrith have earned the right to be favourites. With the likes of Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards and their experienced forward pack, the Panthers possess the combination of composure and big-game experience that is so important in September.
A victory would send Penrith straight through to the preliminary final and give them a valuable weekend to rest and prepare for the biggest games of the season.
Tip: Penrith Panthers
Prediction: Panthers by 10 points
Who Will Survive the First Week of the NRL Finals?
After 27 rounds, the competition has been reduced to eight teams and now the real pressure begins.
The Rabbitohs, Knights, Sharks and Cowboys know that one bad performance will bring their season to an immediate end. There is no next week and no second chance.
For the Warriors, Dolphins, Panthers and Roosters, there is considerably more at stake than simply winning a football game. A qualifying-final victory means a place in the preliminary finals and a precious week off to recover, prepare and watch the elimination games from the sidelines.
That double chance could prove enormous as the finals grind on.
The beauty of the NRL finals is that regular-season form only gets you so far. Players who have spent months preparing for September now have the opportunity to become the heroes their clubs and supporters remember forever.
Who will survive Week One?
We're backing the Rabbitohs, Warriors, Sharks and Panthers to advance.
Bring on September footy!
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