The first major bye round of the season has arrived and the timing couldn’t be more dramatic. With the 2026 State of Origin squads now confirmed, clubs across the competition are scrambling to cover key absences while others suddenly find themselves with a golden opportunity to bank two competition points. Several heavyweights including the Broncos, Panthers, Sharks and Roosters are sitting out this week, while representative duties will heavily influence team selections across the remaining fixtures.
Momentum, depth and adaptability become everything during the Origin period, and the clubs that manage this stretch best often set themselves up for finals football later in the year. Here’s how this weekend’s matches are shaping up.
The Raiders have been one of the grittier teams in recent weeks, but Origin selections have hit Canberra hard. Hudson Young and Ethan Strange are among the key names unavailable, leaving the Green Machine short on strike and leadership through the middle.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have quietly built strong momentum over the last month. Their forward rotation has been laying an excellent platform and their outside backs are starting to capitalise on second-phase play. The extra continuity in their lineup could prove crucial against a Raiders outfit suddenly forced to reshuffle key combinations.
Canberra will still compete fiercely at home, but the Dolphins appear better equipped to handle the disruption that Origin season creates.
Tip: Dolphins by 10
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm
This shapes as the match of the round despite only the away side dealing with representative interruptions here. The Bulldogs have endured an inconsistent stretch and continue searching for stability in attack, while Melbourne have begun to show why they remain one of the competition’s benchmark systems.
Even when the Storm lose elite players to Origin, their structure rarely changes. Their discipline through the middle third and ability to control possession has been outstanding across the past three rounds. Melbourne’s young depth players also continue stepping up whenever called upon.
The Bulldogs will bring energy and physicality, especially with the Belmore-style atmosphere their supporters create, and they desperately need the win here. Expect a return to the Dogs of War style of play, in a scrappy, hard fought contest.
Tip: Bulldogs by 8
St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors have become one of the competition’s most entertaining teams to watch in 2026. Their attack has looked sharp, their edge combinations are clicking, and their confidence has grown significantly over the past month.
The Dragons, however, have shown signs of improvement despite poor results. Their effort areas have lifted considerably and they’ve competed harder for longer periods, particularly through the middle stages of matches.
What could separate these sides is execution. The Warriors are creating points with far greater fluency and their ability to shift the football quickly could expose St George Illawarra’s defensive edges. If the Dragons can slow the ruck and turn this into a grinding contest they’re a chance, but the Warriors currently look too polished.
Tip: Warriors by 12
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans
Few teams are harder to predict than Manly in 2026. The Sea Eagles have produced some brilliant attacking football in patches, yet defensive lapses earlier in the season may continue to haunt them. The Titans have faced similar frustrations, often competing strongly before fading late in matches.
The key difference here could be class in key moments. Jamal Fogarty remains capable of turning a match instantly when fully involved, while Manly’s spine generally looks more settled than the Titans’ combinations.
Gold Coast’s forward pack has shown improvement recently and they’ll challenge Manly physically, but the Sea Eagles should enjoy enough attacking opportunities at home to get the job done.
Expect points in this one.
Tip: Sea Eagles by 14
North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
This could easily become the upset special of the weekend.
The Cowboys have been difficult to trust defensively throughout the season, particularly against sides willing to move the football early in sets. South Sydney have had injury concerns in recent weeks, but their attacking spark remains dangerous whenever their senior playmakers are on the field.
Origin disruption may actually benefit the Rabbitohs here. Several younger squad members now have an opportunity to inject energy into the lineup, and Wayne Bennett-coached sides traditionally thrive during this period of the season.
North Queensland’s home-ground advantage in Townsville is significant, but South Sydney’s ability to play direct through the middle and shift quickly to the edges could trouble the Cowboys all night.
This feels like the tightest contest of the round.
Tip: Rabbitohs by 2
Round Summary
Origin season always creates unpredictability, but it also reveals which clubs possess genuine depth and resilience. Canterbury and the Warriors look particularly well-positioned to navigate the representative period successfully, while the Dolphins have a real opportunity to continue climbing the ladder with a relatively settled lineup. As the footy season rolls on and the State of Origin arrives upon us, every competition point becomes even more valuable. Make sure you’re fully kitted out in all the latest 2026 officially licensed jerseys and supporter gear for both club and representative footy from Jerseys Megastore, for all things footy!
