Round 25 is here and with finals just around the corner, every clash is dripping with storylines, pressure and plenty of tipping headaches. From Alex Johnston’s chase for history against the Dragons, to the ladder-leading Raiders locking horns with the defending premiers in Mudgee, to the Bulldogs and Storm squaring off in a blockbuster at AAMI Park, this weekend shapes as one of the most crucial rounds of the season. Add in must-win scenarios for the Tigers and Sea Eagles, the Broncos’ push for the top four, and the Roosters and Eels battling to keep their finals dreams alive, and fans are in for a feast of rugby league action.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George Illawarra Dragons:
Round 25 kicks off on Thursday night at Accor Stadium with a clash between two proud clubs as the Rabbitohs host the Dragons. All eyes will be on Alex Johnston, who sits just four tries shy of breaking Ken Irvine’s long-standing record of 212. The Souths flyer couldn’t find the line in last week’s gritty 20-16 win over Parramatta, a victory that lifted the Rabbitohs to their eighth win of the year and gave them some breathing room at the bottom of the ladder. Despite a horror run with injuries, the Bunnies continue to dig deep and show plenty of fight, while the Dragons have proven equally resilient in recent weeks, toppling the Sharks and Raiders before falling just short against the Warriors. Finals footy may be off the table, but there’s still no shortage of drama here; Johnston is chasing history, and the Dragons are desperate to square the ledger after their heartbreaking one-point loss back in Round 2. I’ll be tipping the Dragons by 4 points.
Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders:
Finals intensity arrives early in Mudgee on Friday night when the ladder-leading Raiders face the reigning premiers Penrith in a blockbuster with massive stakes. Canberra can edge closer to their first minor premiership since 1990 with victory, while the Panthers will be desperate to rebound after their nine-game winning streak was snapped by the Storm in golden point last week. Ivan Cleary’s men face a challenging run home against the Raiders, Bulldogs and Dragons, and currently sit just one point behind the Warriors in the race for a top-four finish. With star halves Nathan Cleary and Jamal Fogarty steering their sides and strike weapons like Brian To’o, Izack Tago, Kaeo Weekes and Xavier Savage on display, fans at Glen Willow Oval are in for a special night of footy in one of the NRL’s most unique venues. I’ll be tipping the mighty Green Machine by 13 points.
Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs:
It’s all on the line at AAMI Park this Friday night as the Bulldogs look to rebound from two losses in their past three outings, while the Storm aim to extend their dominant home record with a ninth win of the season. Melbourne’s only slip-up at home this year came against Manly in Round 20, with heavyweights like the Panthers, Sharks and Broncos all falling at their fortress. The Bulldogs, sitting in third, are desperate to rediscover their rhythm after a heavy defeat to the Roosters, with a top-two finish and valuable home final still within reach. On the other side, the Storm are gathering momentum at the right time—fresh off a golden point thriller against Penrith and led by Harry Grant and Cameron Munster, who look determined to drive Melbourne towards redemption after last year’s grand final heartbreak. I’m expecting the next installment of the Stephen Crichton legacy games to hit here, and the Dogs will run riot. Canterbury by 18 points.
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles v Dolphins:
Manly’s finals dream is hanging by a thread after four straight defeats have seen them tumble from seventh to 10th, managing just 32 points across that stretch. While Anthony Seibold’s side can still mathematically reach 30 competition points with games against the Dolphins, Dragons and Warriors to come, their rivals for the last finals spot carry far more momentum and belief. The Dolphins, despite falling short against the Broncos, remain two points clear of the Sea Eagles and boast a far superior points differential. Crucially, their attack is humming, averaging 26 points per game over the past month, while Manly’s attacking spark has all but vanished, leaving the visitors with the opportunity for an onslaught this week. I’m tipping the Dolphins by 24 points.
Gold Coast Titans v New Zealand Warriors:
The Titans head into Round 25 staring down the barrel of a third wooden spoon in club history and desperately needing to tighten up their defence after being blown away 54-22 by the Sharks last week, the fifth time this season they’ve conceded 40 or more. Back at Cbus Super Stadium, where they’ve produced some of their best footy in 2025, Des Hasler’s men will be eager to deliver for their home fans. Standing in their way are the Warriors, who edged past the Dragons to cling to fourth place but remain under heavy pressure from the Panthers, Broncos and Sharks. These sides met only a month ago in Auckland, where the Titans stunned the Warriors thanks to huge efforts from Phil Sami, who bagged a double and ran for 256 metres, and Moeaki Fotuaika, who powered through 162 metres off 14 carries, proving they’re capable of another upset if they can bring the same energy. Im tipping the Titans by 4 points.
Parramatta Eels v Sydney Roosters:
The Roosters have roared back into finals contention with a stunning attacking surge, racking up 116 points across wins over the Sea Eagles, Dolphins and Bulldogs since their narrow Round 21 loss to the Storm. With skipper James Tedesco and halfback Sam Walker in red-hot form, the Tricolours have transformed their season and now stand on the brink of securing a ninth straight finals appearance, something that looked unlikely just a month ago when they were languishing in 10th. But to keep their momentum rolling, they’ll need to shut down an unpredictable Eels outfit that can light up the scoreboard when on song. Mitch Moses is central to Parramatta’s hopes, if his long kicking game is sharp and he can link with Zac Lomax in attacking territory, the Eels have the weapons to cause a boilover. I’m tipping Parramatta by 8 points.
Newcastle Knights v Brisbane Broncos:
The Broncos head to McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday chasing a vital win in their push for a top-four finish. Sitting sixth and just two points adrift of the Warriors, Brisbane know the safety net of a second chance in the finals is within reach but their spot inside the eight is far from secure. Standing in their way are the Knights, who are desperate to halt a six-game losing streak and rediscover some pride in front of their home fans. While Newcastle’s finals aspirations are over, a strong finish could set the tone for their 2026 season opener in Las Vegas, making them a dangerous opponent for a Broncos side with plenty still to play for. The experience of the Broncos may just be too strong though. I’m tipping Brisbane by 14 points.
Wests Tigers v North Queensland Cowboys:
The Tigers’ finals dream hangs by a thread, but they’ll look to keep it alive when they welcome the Cowboys to Leichhardt Oval on Sunday afternoon. Benji Marshall’s side have sparked a late-season surge, winning three of their past four to stay in the hunt, though they remain four points outside the top eight with just three games to go, making this a must-win clash. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are out to build momentum of their own ahead of their 2026 season opener in Las Vegas, coming off a dominant win over Newcastle and boosted by the return of key stars. With so much on the line, fans can expect a fiery, physical contest in the heart of Tiger Town. I’m tipping the Tigers by 16 points.
Round 25 delivers a mix of blockbuster matchups, desperate finals pushes, and individual storylines that could shape the run home. From Johnston’s record chase to the Raiders’ shot at history, the Bulldogs’ redemption bid, and the Tigers’ fight to stay alive, every game has something riding on it. With only a handful of rounds left, the margins for error are razor thin, expect intensity, drama, and a few upsets as teams battle for pride, positions, and a shot at September glory. Make sure you’re fully stocked up on all the latest officially licensed supporter gear from Jerseys Megastore, for all things footy!
