The 2026 NRL season is entering its final fortnight, and Round 26 shapes as one of the most important weekends of the year.
With just two rounds remaining after this weekend, the race for the top four and final finals positions is becoming increasingly intense. The New Zealand Warriors, Penrith Panthers and Sydney Roosters are locked together on 38 competition points, while the Dolphins sit just two points behind them in fourth.
At the other end of the table, the Bulldogs remain an outside chance of sneaking into the finals, while Manly are still alive after their huge comeback win over Newcastle. Every match now carries genuine consequences.
For the teams already out of contention, there is still plenty to play for: pride, momentum, combinations and the chance to finish 2026 on a high.
So, who gets the chocolates in NRL Round 26
Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm
Tip: Brisbane Broncos
This is a fascinating clash because neither Brisbane nor Melbourne will feature in the 2026 finals, despite both clubs having plenty of recent September experience.
The Broncos will head into Suncorp Stadium full of confidence after producing one of the comebacks of Round 25, overturning a 30-16 deficit to beat the Raiders 34-30 in Canberra. Hayze Perham was outstanding at fullback in place of the injured Reece Walsh, while Payne Haas once again led from the front.
There is also a huge emotional subplot surrounding veteran Adam Reynolds. The Broncos captain has been battling a calf injury and faces a race against time to make what could be his final appearance at Suncorp Stadium.
The Storm's remarkable finals streak officially came to an end last Thursday when Penrith defeated them 22-14 at AAMI Park. Melbourne fought back after trailing 22-0 at half-time, but couldn't complete the comeback.
Our prediction: Brisbane have the momentum, home ground advantage and plenty of motivation to finish the season strongly.
Tip: Broncos by 8
Manly Sea Eagles v St George Illawarra Dragons
Tip: Manly Sea Eagles
Suddenly, Manly have something to play for.
The Sea Eagles produced one of the results of Round 25, coming from 18-6 down to defeat Newcastle 44-24. Josh Feledy scored a hat-trick, while Tom Trbojevic's return provided a massive boost to Manly's attack.
Manly remain ninth and their finals hopes are slim, but importantly, they still have a mathematical pathway. A win over the Dragons would keep the door open heading into the final round.
The Dragons, meanwhile, were brought crashing back to earth after their promising recent form. Canterbury put 44 points on them last weekend, leaving St George Illawarra sitting at the bottom of the ladder.
If Manly can reproduce anything like their attacking performance against the Knights, they should have too much firepower.
Our prediction: Turbo, Saab, Garrick and Hopoate will cause headaches for the Dragons' defence.
Tip: Sea Eagles by 14
Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs
Tip: Penrith Panthers
This could be one of the most intriguing games of Round 26.
The Panthers returned to the top of the NRL ladder after beating Melbourne 22-14 last Thursday, with Brian To'o scoring a memorable hat-trick, including his 100th NRL try.
Penrith now sit on 38 points alongside the Warriors and Roosters, meaning every victory is crucial as they chase a top-two finish and home-ground advantage in the finals.
For Canterbury, the equation is simple: win and stay alive.
The Bulldogs demolished St George Illawarra 44-14 last weekend, with Matt Burton scoring twice and Stephen Crichton kicking eight goals.
However, Canterbury have been hit by a significant COVID outbreak ahead of this match, with several players and staff reportedly affected. Jacob Preston, Stephen Crichton and Max King are among those impacted, creating major uncertainty around the Bulldogs' lineup.
That makes an already difficult assignment even harder.
Our prediction: The Bulldogs have plenty to play for, but Penrith's premiership experience and depth should get them home.
Tip: Panthers by 12
Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Tip: South Sydney Rabbitohs
The Rabbitohs are one of the teams with plenty on the line this weekend.
South Sydney were beaten 45-26 by the Warriors last round, but their position in the top eight remains strong. They had previously built a four-point buffer over Canterbury and have shown some excellent defensive improvements in recent weeks.
The big news for the Bunnies is the expected return of Latrell Mitchell. His comeback was delayed last weekend, but he is targeting Round 26 against the Titans.
The Titans will be disappointed after surrendering a half-time lead against Cronulla before eventually losing 30-22. Ronaldo Mulitalo and Sione Katoa both scored twice for the Sharks as Gold Coast's defence struggled after the break.
With David Fifita, Cameron Murray, Cody Walker, Alex Johnston and potentially Latrell Mitchell in the same side, South Sydney have enough attacking weapons to cause plenty of problems.
Our prediction: The Titans will make this competitive at home, but the Rabbitohs need this win more.
Tip: Rabbitohs by 10
Tip: Dolphins
This might be the match of the round from a top-four perspective.
The Roosters had been flying, winning eight consecutive games and taking top spot on the ladder. Then came one of the biggest surprises of Round 25, with the Wests Tigers producing a stunning 25-24 upset at Allianz Stadium. Jock Madden's field goal with a minute remaining sealed the result.
The Roosters remain right in the hunt for the minor premiership, but they now face a Dolphins side sitting fourth and two points behind the three teams on 38 points.
The Dolphins have been one of the stories of the 2026 season and strengthened their top-four credentials with a 34-16 victory over Parramatta last Friday. Herbie Farnworth and Jamayne Isaako both scored doubles.
The Roosters will be desperate to bounce back, but the Dolphins are playing with confidence and have plenty of attacking firepower.
Our prediction: This is our upset of the round. The Dolphins can exploit any confidence issues left over from the Tigers defeat.
Tip: Dolphins by 4
North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers
Tip: Wests Tigers
The Tigers have just produced one of the biggest upsets of the season, stunning the Sydney Roosters 25-24 at Allianz Stadium. Jock Madden's late field goal sealed the victory and showed that this young Wests Tigers side is capable of causing serious headaches when given the opportunity.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, are under enormous pressure with their finals hopes on the line. That desperation makes them dangerous, but it also brings plenty of pressure into a game they simply cannot afford to lose.
After knocking off one of the competition's in-form teams, we're backing the Tigers to carry that confidence into North Queensland. If they can replicate the energy, defensive commitment and composure they showed against the Roosters, they have every chance of making it two huge wins in a row.
Our prediction: This is our second upset of the round. The Tigers are playing with belief, and we're tipping them to continue their late-season charge.
Tip: Wests Tigers by 6
New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights
Tip: New Zealand Warriors
The Warriors are now the team to beat.
After beating South Sydney 45-26, Andrew Webster's side climbed to the top of the ladder on points differential. They are locked on 38 competition points with Penrith and the Roosters, but currently hold the advantage.
The Warriors have been one of the most consistent teams in the competition and will now be dreaming of securing a top-two finish and a home final.
Newcastle, meanwhile, suffered a major blow to their own top-four aspirations when Manly came from behind to beat them 44-24. The Knights are still a quality side, but their margin for error has disappeared.
The Warriors also have home-ground advantage and will be desperate to maintain their position at the top of the ladder.
Our prediction: The Knights can challenge them, but the Warriors' confidence is sky-high.
Tip: Warriors by 8
Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sharks
Tip: Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla have a point to prove.
The Sharks were expected to be one of the competition's genuine contenders this season, but their form has become increasingly difficult to predict. They did, however, recover from a slow start against the Titans last weekend to win 30-22.
The Eels were comfortably beaten by the Dolphins 34-16 and remain outside the finals picture. They have nevertheless shown enough throughout the season to suggest they can cause an upset when their attack clicks.
Mitchell Moses will be crucial for Parramatta, but Cronulla should have the stronger forward pack and enough attacking quality through Nicho Hynes and their outside backs.
Our prediction: The Eels will compete for long periods, but Cronulla's class should eventually tell.
Tip: Sharks by 8
Our NRL Round 26 Tips
| Round 26 Match | Jerseys Megastore Tip |
|---|---|
| Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm | Broncos |
| Manly Sea Eagles v St George Illawarra Dragons | Sea Eagles |
| Penrith Panthers v Canterbury Bulldogs | Panthers |
| Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs |
| Sydney Roosters v Dolphins | Dolphins |
| North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers | Tigers |
| New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights | Warriors |
| Parramatta Eels v Cronulla Sharks | Sharks |
The Run to the Finals Is On
With just two rounds remaining after Round 26, the 2026 NRL finals picture is becoming clearer but there is still plenty to be decided.
The Warriors, Panthers and Roosters are locked together on 38 points, while the Dolphins are just two points behind them. South Sydney remain in the finals mix, while Manly and Canterbury are fighting to keep their September dreams alive.
For those clubs already eliminated, the motivation changes. Pride, player development and finishing the season strongly become the focus. For the contenders, however, every tackle, try and two competition points could make the difference between a home final and a difficult trip away.
And with the 2026 NRL Finals just around the corner, there is no better time to show your colours.
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