As the business end of the season approaches, Round 21 promises to be a pivotal week in the race for finals. From desperate battles between cellar dwellers to blockbuster clashes between title contenders, every match is dripping with storylines and stakes. The Broncos are charging towards the top four, the Raiders are aiming to lock down a historic minor premiership, and Alex Johnston is inching closer to Ken Irvine’s legendary tryscoring record. Meanwhile, the Roosters are clinging to their finals hopes, and the Tigers are fighting to avoid yet another wooden spoon. Strap in as we break down all eight matchups and give our expert predictions, all proudly brought to you by Jerseys Megastore, your home for all things footy.
Sydney Roosters v Melbourne Storm:
The Roosters are clinging to finals hopes, sitting just one win outside the top eight, but face a brutal run home that includes two clashes with the Storm, as well as tough matchups against the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles. Since their classic 2019 Grand Final meeting, the Storm have dominated this rivalry, winning 11 of the last 14 encounters against the Bondi club. Melbourne, despite a surprise home loss to Manly last weekend that saw them slip from second to third on the ladder, remain in control of their top-four destiny. Their monster +218 points differential gives them a buffer, though the absence of Nelson Asofa-Solomona (suspension) and continued uncertainty around Ryan Papenhuyzen’s calf are less than ideal. This one shapes as another tough ask for the Roosters against a Storm side eager to bounce back. I’m tipping the Storm by 14 points.
North Queensland Cowboys v St George Illawarra Dragons:
Finals footy is slipping out of reach for both the Cowboys and Dragons as they clash in Townsville to kick off Round 21. North Queensland have managed just one win from their past seven outings and that came against the bottom-placed Titans in a run that’s all but derailed their campaign. The Dragons haven’t fared much better, with just one win from their last six and yet another heartbreaking loss last weekend, going down 20-18 to the Bulldogs. Shane Flanagan’s men have now dropped six games this season by six points or less, a cruel trend that’s turned a potential finals push into a likely seventh straight year without September action. Desperation will fuel both sides here, but history suggests heartbreak may be waiting for one of them yet again. I’ll be tipping the Cowboys by 6 points.
Brisbane Broncos v Parramatta Eels:
The Broncos are flying high on a five-game winning streak and head into their clash with the Eels eyeing a potential top-four finish. With two showdowns against the Storm still looming, Brisbane will be desperate to bank wins against teams out of finals contention and this Round 21 matchup presents a golden opportunity. The Eels, while showing signs of progress under Jason Ryles in 2025, have managed just five wins and are in danger of collecting their first wooden spoon since 2018. There’s plenty of promise in their emerging core; Joash Papalii, Isaiah Iongi, Ryley Smith, Charlie Guymer and Sam Tuivaiti have all impressed but they’ll need to turn promise into performances quickly if they’re to salvage anything from this season. The Broncos should have too much class here, but the Eels will be out to cause chaos and gain momentum heading into 2026. I’ll be tipping the Broncos by 8 points.
New Zealand Warriors v Gold Coast Titans:
The Warriors pulled off a stunning escape in Newcastle last week, snatching a 20-15 win in the dying seconds thanks to a brilliant solo effort from Leka Halasima. It kept them four points clear of the chasing Broncos in the top-four race, but they’ll know they can’t afford to leave it so late as the finals edge closer. Back home in front of their passionate fanbase, the Warriors will be heavy favourites against a Titans side fresh off a collapse of their own. Gold Coast looked set for a rare win when AJ Brimson crossed late, only to concede a try and then a match-winning field goal to go down 21-20 to the Tigers. With the wooden spoon looming and Des Hasler staring at a career-first coaching low, the Titans are officially in desperation mode. Expect the Warriors to ride the home crowd energy and keep their top-four momentum rolling. I’ll be tipping the Warriors by 18 points.
Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers:
The defending premiers are starting to hit their stride, surging into sixth spot on the back of six consecutive wins. Their latest challenge is a potential banana peel against a Tigers side that nearly upset them back in Round 14, where Nathan Cleary’s boot was the difference in a tight 18-14 contest despite both sides crossing for three tries apiece. Since then, the Panthers have taken down the Warriors, Bulldogs, Eels, and Rabbitohs to become the team no contender wants to face in September. Meanwhile, the Tigers finally broke a losing streak last weekend with a gritty win over the Titans, but remain entrenched in a desperate scrap to avoid a fourth straight wooden spoon. The Panthers should be too polished at home, but if they underestimate this unpredictable Tigers outfit, they could be in for another scare. I’ll be tipping the Panthers by 24 points.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks:
All eyes will be on Rabbitohs flyer Alex Johnston as he continues his charge toward Ken Irvine’s long-standing premiership tryscoring record. Johnston’s late four-pointer against Penrith last week pushed his tally to 207, just five shy of Irvine’s iconic 212 and he’ll be hoping to inch even closer under the lights at Gosford’s Polytec Stadium. But standing in his way is a resurgent Sharks side that’s rediscovered form at the right time. Back-to-back wins over the Dolphins and Roosters have reignited Cronulla’s finals push, with Blayke Brailey sharp out of dummy half and Nicho Hynes leading the charge with confidence. With a friendly run home, the Sharks will see this as a must-win clash to solidify their top-eight spot but they’ll need to be wary of a Rabbitohs side with history on their winger’s mind. I’ll be tipping the Sharks by 12 points.
Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights:
The Raiders are flying high at the top of the NRL ladder and will be out to tighten their grip on first place when they host the Knights at GIO Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Ricky Stuart’s men hold a two-point lead over the Bulldogs with a bye in hand and are eyeing their first minor premiership since 1990 and with seven wins from eight at home this season, they’ll back themselves to take another big step forward here. But Newcastle won’t go down without a fight. Still clinging to faint finals hopes, the Knights sit 14th and know a win is essential to keep their season alive. They’ll be stinging after last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Warriors, where they conceded a try on the final play of the game, but can take confidence from their last visit to Canberra, where they toppled the Raiders in 2024. Expect a fired-up contest with plenty riding on it for both sides. I’ll be tipping the Raiders by 7 points.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles:
Round 21 wraps up with a fascinating clash between two sides riding high after dramatic victories last weekend. The Bulldogs left it late against the Dragons, with rising star Jethro Rinakama bagging the match-winner thanks to an all time great pass by Lachie Galvin to secure a gritty 20-18 result, his second try in as many games and another step forward in his breakout season. Manly, meanwhile, held their nerve in a thriller against the Storm, weathering a second-half surge to edge home 18-16 and climb back into the top eight. Reuben Garrick was the difference-maker, scoring a try, adding two clutch penalty goals including the match-winner in the 79th minute and contributing 10 points overall in a vintage performance. Both teams come in with momentum, and with finals spots on the line, this one promises to be a high-stakes, down-to-the-wire affair at Accor Stadium. I’ll be tipping the Bulldogs by 4 points.
With finals spots up for grabs and pressure mounting across the board, Round 21 is shaping as one of the most telling weekends of the 2025 NRL season. Whether it’s teams clawing to stay in the hunt, heavyweights jostling for top-four positions, or individual stars chasing records, there’s no shortage of drama across the slate. From Canberra’s title charge to Alex Johnston’s tryscoring pursuit, every game carries weight. Make sure you’re kitted out for the run home… head to Jerseys Megastore for all things footy!
