With just a handful of rounds remaining, the race for the top eight is reaching boiling point and every match is loaded with finals implications. From heavyweight showdowns like the Storm v Broncos and Bulldogs v Warriors, to season-shaping clashes between the Dolphins and Roosters or Eels and Cowboys, there’s no shortage of drama in Round 23. Whether it’s teams fighting for top-four finishes or others battling to stay in contention, this weekend promises fireworks across the board. We’ve broken down all eight games and given our tips for what’s shaping up to be a blockbuster round of footy.
Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos:
The Raiders’ unexpected loss has thrown the top-four race wide open, and both the Storm and Broncos are charging hard towards a strong finish. Melbourne face a brutal run home with matchups against the Broncos (twice), Panthers, Bulldogs and Roosters, but if they can weather the storm and welcome Jahrome Hughes back for finals, they’re every chance of pushing for their seventh minor premiership. Meanwhile, Brisbane have surged from 11th to sixth on the back of six wins from their last seven, and with attacking weapons like Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Kotoni Staggs firing, they’ll fancy themselves to take a major scalp as they eye a top-four spot of their own. I’m going to tip Brisbane by 6 points.
Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers:
The Panthers are riding an eight-game winning streak and sending a clear warning to their title rivals, but it was the Knights who last toppled the reigning premiers back in Round 12. That Bathurst clash, played without Penrith’s Origin stars, could prove a defining moment as the champs look to stay sharp during the run home. While they narrowly escaped with a win over the Titans last week, Penrith continue to show their championship grit. The Knights, fresh off a bye and back on home turf, will be out to repeat history and shake up the top-four race once again. I’ll be tipping Penrith though, by 10 points.
Canberra Raiders v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles:
The Raiders will be out to make a statement after a shock loss to the Dragons, while Manly enter must-win territory if they’re to keep their finals hopes alive. Despite the stumble in Wollongong, Canberra remain well-placed to push for their first minor premiership since 1990, especially with a bye still in hand. But the Sea Eagles won’t be fazed heading to the capital, boasting a strong record at GIO Stadium and a thumping Round 3 win over the Green Machine. Expect fireworks early before the likes of Xavier Savage, Kaeo Weekes, Tolu Koula and Lehi Hopoate light it up in what promises to be an entertaining Friday night clash. I’m tipping the Raiders in a high scoring affair, by 8 points.
St George Illawarra Dragons v Cronulla Sharks:
Form and ladder position often go out the window in a local derby, but recent history has been all Sharks, with Cronulla racking up 10 straight wins over the Dragons since 2020. Craig Fitzgibbon’s side is eyeing yet another finals appearance, sitting comfortably in the top eight with a favourable run home and a bye in hand. However, they won’t be taking the Dragons lightly after their stunning upset over Canberra. Finals may be out of reach for St George Illawarra, but they’ll relish the chance to spoil the party for their rivals and add another upset to their late-season charge. I suspect the Sharks spine to be too strong here though. I’ll be tipping the Sharks by 14 points.
Dolphins v Sydney Roosters:
Suncorp Stadium will be rocking on Saturday night as the Dolphins and Roosters face off in a high-stakes showdown with finals implications written all over it. The Dolphins famously stunned the Roosters in their first-ever NRL match, but Sydney has since responded with three straight wins in the rivalry. With both teams coming off solid victories and sitting eighth and ninth on the ladder, the pressure is on, and the loser risks falling out of the finals race. Expect fireworks from young guns Isaiya Katoa and Sam Walker, while star fullbacks Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and James Tedesco will be primed to take centre stage in a game that could shape the season. The stage is set for another high scoring affair. I’ll be tipping the Roosters by 7 points.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors:
The Warriors have held a top-four spot since Round 7, but back-to-back losses have left them vulnerable to a surging Panthers side breathing down their necks. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have stumbled slightly since their Round 16 bye, going 3-3 after a dominant first half of the season. Canterbury has already claimed both clashes against the Warriors in 2024, including a golden point thriller sealed by a Matt Burton field goal. With finals positioning on the line and a packed Accor Stadium behind them, the Bulldogs will look to Burton’s boot and defensive grit to grind out another crucial win against the wobbling Wahs. I’m tipping the Bulldogs by 18 points.
Gold Coast Titans v South Sydney Rabbitohs:
The Titans return home on Sunday looking to bounce back from a gut-wrenching golden-point loss to the Panthers, and while finals footy may be out of reach, Des Hasler’s side has shown plenty of fight in recent weeks. They’ll be eager to reward their loyal fans with a strong showing against a Rabbitohs outfit still battling through a brutal injury run. Despite being outclassed by the Broncos last week, Souths have shown resilience under Wayne Bennett, and with a few extra days’ rest, they’ll be eyeing a much-needed win to lift themselves off the bottom of the ladder. This could be a second gold point affair in as many week for the Gold Coast. I’m tipping the Titans by 1 point.
Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys:
The Eels continue their promising rebuild under Jason Ryles when they host the Cowboys in what shapes as an entertaining Sunday afternoon clash. Parramatta have shown encouraging signs in recent weeks and will be eager to bounce back from a narrow loss to the Storm, with Mitchell Moses steering the ship superbly since returning from injury. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are back on the road after falling to the Sharks, and while their attack remains potent, defensive lapses have cost them dearly. They’ll need to sharpen up if they’re to leave CommBank Stadium with the points. I’m tipping Parramatta by 8 points.
Round 23 has all the ingredients for a classic; fierce rivalries, finals spots on the line, and a few potential upsets looming large. As the ladder tightens and pressure mounts, every result counts, and every performance could shape the destiny of a club’s season. Whether you’re backing a top-four hopeful or watching your team scrap for survival, there’s no shortage of storylines this week. Strap in for another huge round of action and as always, make sure you’re decked out in your teams latest officially licensed gear from Jerseys Megastore, for all things footy!
